Case study
Mentions markets: settling the unstructured
“Mentions” markets trade whether a specific word or phrase gets said during an event: a speech, broadcast, hearing, or game. They are a useful stress test for settlement infrastructure: the data is free to read but unstructured, so the cost is monitoring and transcription, not access.
81
Series analyzed
$52M
Notional volume
42.7%
Settled YES-rate
genuinely two-sided
61
Settlement sources
How they settle
Every mention market resolves off the live feed of the underlying event, never a data vendor. Sports and entertainment markets settle on the broadcaster or league: Fox Sports, Peacock, NBA/MLB/NHL, UFC/Paramount+. Political “what will X say” markets settle on a redundant basket of news networks plus the figure’s own YouTube or Truth Social channel.
The access nuance
The political basket lists paywalled outlets (WSJ, The Information) alongside free ones (AP, Reuters, CNN) covering the identical quote, so paywalls are effectively non-binding. The genuinely gated sources are paid streaming: Peacock (Love Island) and Paramount+ (UFC) are sole sources you must subscribe to watch.
The Wall Street JournalPaywallThe InformationPaywallPeacockSubscriptionParamount+SubscriptionHBO MaxSubscription
What people actually trade
Top contracts by volume. Each row is a specific phrase that resolves YES if said.
| Phrase (YES if said) | Event / subject | Result | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | What will Trump say this week? | YES | $410K |
| Levi's Stadium | What will the announcers say during Turkiye vs Paraguay | YES | $335K |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | What will Trump say this week? | YES | $217K |
| Cuba / Cuban | What will Trump say this week? | YES | $206K |
| Ballroom | What will Trump say this week? | YES | $194K |
| AT&T Stadium | What will the announcers say during England vs Croatia | NO | $179K |
| SoFi Stadium | What will the announcers say during USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match | NO | $174K |
| Lumen Field | What will the announcers say during USA vs Australia | NO | $168K |
| Shutout | What will the announcers say during Turkiye vs USA | NO | $152K |
| Arrowhead Stadium | What will the announcers say during Argentina vs Algeria | YES | $147K |
| Blood / Bloody | What will the announcers say during Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje UFC Fight | NO | $136K |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | What will Trump say this week? | YES | $118K |
| Defense / Defender / Defensive | What will the Spurs say during their postgame press conference? | NO | $111K |
| Levi's Stadium | What will the announcers say during Austria vs Jordan | NO | $108K |
| SoFi Stadium | What will the announcers say during IR Iran vs New Zealand | NO | $103K |
| NRG Stadium | What will the announcers say during Portugal vs Congo DR | NO | $98K |
| Qatar | What will the announcers say during Czechia vs South Africa | NO | $98K |
| Ally | What will Trump say during his meeting with NATO Secretary General? | NO | $97K |
| Where's your head at / Where is your head at | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 20? | NO | $97K |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | What will Trump say this month? | YES | $92K |
| Uranium | What will Trump say this week? | NO | $90K |
| Crowd / Home | What will the Knicks say during their postgame press conference? | NO | $87K |
| Drone | What will Trump say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? | YES | $87K |
| Sleepy Joe | What will Trump say this week? | YES | $84K |
| Pull you for a chat | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 18? | NO | $80K |
| Tech / Technical | What will the Knicks say during their postgame press conference? | YES | $74K |
| Southside | What will Obama say during his MS NOW interview? | YES | $69K |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | What will Trump say during his America is Back Rally? | NO | $67K |
| Championship / Chip | What will the Spurs say during their postgame press conference? | NO | $61K |
| Bombshell | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 12? | YES | $59K |
| Ceasefire | What will Trump say during his meeting with NATO Secretary General? | NO | $57K |
| Event does not qualify | What will Trump say during The Secure America Act signing? | NO | $55K |
| Billionaire | What will Mamdani say during The 11th Hour with Ali Velshi? | NO | $55K |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | What will Trump say this week? | NO | $55K |
| Pull you for a chat | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 17? | NO | $54K |
| Goat | What will Trump say this month? | YES | $54K |
| Championship / Chip / Ring | What will the Knicks say during their postgame press conference? | NO | $52K |
| Firepit | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 9? | NO | $52K |
| Pull you for a chat | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 15? | NO | $51K |
| Pull you for a chat | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 13? | NO | $51K |
| Knicks | What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally? | NO | $50K |
| Trump | What will the announcers say during Spurs vs Knicks Professional Basketball Game | YES | $48K |
| Greenland | What will Trump say this month? | NO | $45K |
| Firepit | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 8? | NO | $45K |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | What will Todd Blanche say during Saturday in America? | NO | $45K |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | What will AOC say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? | NO | $44K |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | What will Trump say during Meet the Press? | NO | $44K |
| Pull you for a chat | What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 19? | NO | $42K |
Top series by volume
What will the announcers say during Turkiye vs Paraguay
KXWCMENTION · 1813 markets · 45% YES
$26M
What will Trump say this week?
KXTRUMPSAY · 140 markets · 56% YES
$6.0M
What will Trump say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump?
KXTRUMPMENTION · 526 markets · 45% YES
$3.9M
What will the announcers say during Spurs vs Knicks Professional Basketball Game
KXNBAMENTION · 200 markets · 44% YES
$2.4M
What will the cast say during Love Island Episode 20?
KXLOVEISLMENTION · 340 markets · 31% YES
$1.9M
What will the announcers say during Red Sox vs Yankees Professional Baseball Game
KXMLBMENTION · 703 markets · 54% YES
$1.3M
What will Trump say during his meeting with NATO Secretary General?
KXTRUMPMENTIONB · 211 markets · 38% YES
$882K
What will the announcers say during Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje UFC Fight
KXFIGHTMENTION · 343 markets · 20% YES
$856K
What will Trump say this month?
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH · 33 markets · 67% YES
$775K
What will the Knicks say during their postgame press conference?
KXATHLETEMENTION · 98 markets · 33% YES
$623K
Settlement sources used
ABC
51 seriesFree
Fox News
51 seriesFree
MSNBC
51 seriesFree
The Wall Street Journal
51 seriesPaywall
Semafor
51 seriesFree
CBS
51 seriesFree
Axios
51 seriesFree
CNN
51 seriesFree
Reuters
51 seriesFree
The Washington Post
51 seriesFreemium
Politico
51 seriesFree
The Information
50 seriesPaywall